Intelligence sources said the combination of threats gave rise to a more heated security environment, making a lone-wolf or small terror cell attack on our shores

the new Australian threat comes from various fringe elements of society, fuelled by anti-government conspiratorial thinking

Australian Intelligence sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity before Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the change, said the move was not spurred by any one set of potential terrorists.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is holding a press conference in Canberra with ASIO director-general Mike Burgess and Attorney General Mark Dreyfus.

Unlike in 2014 when it was last raised to “probable” in response to ISIS, the new threat comes from various fringe elements of society, fuelled by anti-government conspiratorial thinking, frustration with the public health response to COVID-19, and exacerbated by tensions around the war in Gaza.

The new threat level is not prompted by intelligence on any specific imminent attack.

“I want to reassure Australians ‘probable’ does not mean ‘inevitable’,” Albanese said at a press conference in Canberra on Monday.

Albanese said there had been a global rise in politically motivated violence and extremists. “Governments around the world are concerned about youth radicalisation, online radicalisation, and the rise of new mixed ideologies,” he said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and ASIO chief Mike Burgess at a press conference announcing the raised threat level on Monday.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and ASIO chief Mike Burgess at a press conference announcing the raised threat level on Monday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The spy agency’s director-general Mike Burgess said Australia’s security environment had become more volatile and unpredictable.

“More Australians are being radicalised and radicalised more quickly ... [and] embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies,” he said. “More Australians are willing to use violence to advance their cause.”

Burgess also said trust in institutions was eroding.

“Provocative inflammatory behaviours are being normalised,” he said. “This trend increased during COVID and gained momentum after the terrorist attacks on Israel and accelerated during Israel’s military response. Individuals are embracing anti-authority ideologies, conspiracy theories, and diverse grievances.”

Intelligence sources said the combination of threats gave rise to a more heated security environment, making a lone-wolf or small terror cell attack on our shores – likely to be executed with easy-to-access weapons and simple tactics – more likely.

ASIO has either intercepted or responded to eight terror attacks since April, the sources said. This included the Wakeley church stabbing in Western Sydney, when a bishop was stabbed during a sermon that was being live-streamed on social media.

The protest movement around the war in Gaza is a significant factor in the terror threat upgrade a source said, as it has normalised intimidatory, anti-authority and violent acts as a form of legitimate protest.

Asked if the threat level would have been upgraded if the war in Gaza was not occurring, an intelligence source said: “It is so significant”.

ASIO dropped the threat level in November 2022 after a reduction in risk posed by religiously motivated violent extremists.

Before 2022 the threat level had been probable since 2014 at a time when significant numbers of radicalised foreign fighters, including Australians, were travelling to Syria and Iraq to join Islamic terrorist groups.

There are five terror threat levels, ranging from “certain” to “not expected”.

A “probable” terror rating means there is credible intelligence indicating individuals or groups have both the intent and capability to conduct an attack.

More to come.

The Sydney Morning Herald