America’s Nuclear Secrets: How Many Warheads Are Left?

As of September 2023, America’s stockpile includes 3,748 Nuclear warheads

America’s Nuclear Secrets: How Many Warheads Are Left?

July 23, 2024

For the first time since 2021, the U.S. has revealed how many nuclear warheads it has, showing a dramatic drop from Cold War levels. As of September 2023, America’s stockpile includes 3,748 warheads, a huge decrease from the peak of over 31,000 in 1967. Last year, only 69 warheads were dismantled, the fewest since 1994, even though there are still around 2,000 retired warheads waiting to be dismantled. This new transparency comes amidst ongoing global nuclear tensions and raises questions about whether other nations will follow suit.

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The United States has disclosed its nuclear weapons stockpile inventory statistics for the first time since 2021. The action is another sign of increased transparency about this very private information, which also shows that the US decommissioned the fewest amount of retired nuclear weapons since 1994—just 69—last year.

The National Nuclear Security Administration, or NNSA, which is in charge of America’s nuclear weapons arsenal, released the most recent data (view below). The remarkable number is the total number of nuclear weapons in the U.S. arsenal as of September 2023—3,748.

The stockpile comprises both strategic and non-strategic (tactical) warheads, both active and inactive, according to the NNSA’s definition. Inactive warheads are kept in depots in a non-operational state, whereas active warheads are those that are deemed operational and prepared for use, along with logistics spares. It would take some time to install their tritium bottles and other parts that have a shorter lifespan, even though they could be deployed.

A Trident II missile is launched from an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine. Getty Images A successful launch of a Trident II from a U.S. Navy Ohio class submarine. Photo By Getty Images

In nuclear weapons, tritium and deuterium are utilized to “boost” the chain reaction, resulting in a more potent explosion. Tritium is usually utilized to accelerate the fission primary or first stage in thermonuclear bombs. These bottles are taken out of deactivated warheads since tritium is radioactive and decays quickly.

Retired warheads, which are deemed non-functional, and dismantled warheads, which have already been disassembled into their constituent pieces, are not included in the stockpile.

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A W78 warhead was used on the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. USAF

Taking a closer look at the stockpile figures, the NNSA contrasts the 3,748 warheads reported as of September of last year with the highest level of 31,255 warheads attained in 1967, at one of the most pivotal moments of the Cold War. Meanwhile, the United States had 22,217 warheads in its arsenal when the Berlin Wall down in 1989. The most recent estimate indicates a decline of 88% since 1967 and 83% since 1989.

The decommissioning of non-strategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons, the quantity of which has dropped by more than 90% since 1991, was largely responsible for this reduction.

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The then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Colin Powell used a chart to explain the nuclear arms reorganization plan under the administration of President George H. W. Bush, on September 28, 1991. Getty Images Mark Reinstein

When considering both strategic and non-strategic warheads collectively, 12,088 warheads were disassembled between fiscal years 1994 and 2023, according to the NNSA. There have been 405 nuclear warheads removed since September 2020 alone. Approximately 2,000 other nuclear warheads have been retired and are currently awaiting dismantlement at the same time.

But it’s crucial to remember that these numbers only provide a portion of the story. In reality, it is quite likely that the NNSA chose them to emphasize the stockpile’s overall decrease in size rather than the fact that its pace has slowed recently.

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NNSA

The United States’ nuclear arsenal is undoubtedly far lower now than it was during the Cold War, and although reductions have increased since 2000, they have been relatively moderate since 2007.

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a think tank located in the United States that has long advocated for greater transparency regarding nuclear stocks worldwide, has taken note of this.

Hans Kristensen, the director of FAS’s Nuclear Information Project, highlights the following in his examination of the NNSA’s disclosures:

“Although the New Start treaty has had some indirect effect on the stockpile size due to reduced requirement, the biggest reductions since 2007 have been caused by changes in presidential guidance, strategy, and modernization programs.”

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An unarmed B61-12 tactical nuclear bomb test article is seen here on a trailer during a U.S. Air Force test of the weapon in 2023. USAF

For instance, the number of decommissioned nuclear warheads removed in 2023 was just 69, the lowest since 1994.

The reason for the high number of retired warheads awaiting dismantlement (approximately 2,000) is that the rate of dismantlement has slowed, at least in comparison to prior years. According to FAS, there were about 2,500 warheads in storage and ready for disassembly in 2015.

This implies that dismantlement is no longer as important, albeit it’s not quite clear why.

Kristensen further points out that the NNSA’s graph, which depicts the stockpile’s variations between 1945 and 2024, is not entirely accurate:

“The chart released by NNSA is not entirely accurate because the period 2010-2023 does not show the 1,096-warhead drop between 2012 and 2018. As a result, the chart gives the impression that the stockpile is larger today than it actually is.”

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The NNSA’s chart shows the fluctuations in the U.S. nuclear stockpile between 1945 and 2024. NNSA

Overall, though, the figures offer a helpful picture of how the stockpile’s size has stayed largely constant over the last seven years. Over that period, warhead movements into and out of the stockpile as a result of maintenance and life-extension operations have driven changes in the total rather than any policy changes.

It’s also intriguing that this information was decided to be made public.

The objectives of each government have largely shaped the level of transparency surrounding the U.S. nuclear stockpile; the Obama administration was the first to implement this openness strategy.

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After that, under the Trump administration, there was a brief period of nuclear secrets that was reversed by the Biden administration in its first year, at which point the number of warheads was once more classified. Consequently, in FY2021, FY2022, and FY2023 FAS demands for stockpile transparency were turned down. However, the NNSA has since declassified the figures for those years.

The intention behind the return to transparency likely is to incentivize other states possessing nuclear weapons to reveal comparable levels of information.

The NNSA says in its executive summary:

“Increasing the transparency of states’ nuclear stockpiles is important to nonproliferation and disarmament efforts, including commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and efforts to address all types of nuclear weapons, including deployed and non-deployed, and strategic and non-strategic.”

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Given their prior records in this area, it is far more doubtful that Beijing and Moscow will genuinely reply in kind.

It should be mentioned that two nuclear-armed allies of the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, have likewise continuously kept significant aspects of their nuclear warfighting capabilities under wraps.

In recent years, there has been an increase in broader concerns regarding the future of nuclear arms control accords. The United States and Russia’s Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, which covered both conventional and nuclear missiles of different kinds despite its name, fell apart in 2019, and the Russian Federation withdrew from the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the United States last year. The Russian government likewise withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 2023, but it has made it plain that it would not resume testing of nuclear weapons in real time until the US does. Additionally, American officials have now openly accused their Russian colleagues of attempting to develop a nuclear-armed space weapon, which would be against the terms of the Outer Space Treaty.

In light of all of this, the US’s commitment to transparency may start to seem less sincere as long as it stays on a one-way track.

But some would counter that this is not the time to reveal more nuclear secrets, especially in light of calls for the US to increase its nuclear arsenal, given the current state of international affairs, which includes the worst tensions between the US and China in decades and China rapidly accumulating nuclear weapons.

The United States has declassified the number of nuclear weapons in its arsenal – just before NPT PREPCOM.

FAS applauds the Biden administration for restoring US nuclear transparency and urge other countries to follow the example.

Here is our analysis: https://t.co/l9AicioOJZ

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